Experts Say a TikTok Sale Could Become Real Option Under Incoming Trump Administration

President-elect Donald Trump tried to shut down TikTok during his first term. Now, with a federal deadline for the app approaching, he says he wants to save it, and analysts who follow the company's fight with Washington say a sale of the platform may be more plausible than before.

A law Congress passed in April requires TikTok to be banned by Jan. 19 unless its Beijing-based owner, ByteDance, fully divests from it. Trump is scheduled to be sworn in the following day. Some TikTok watchers expect him to extend the deadline and then try to arrange a deal that would put the app under majority American ownership, either through one company or a group of U.S. investors.

Analysts told NPR that both the Chinese government and ByteDance may be warming to that idea, though Beijing has long opposed a sale. Experts said China could become more receptive if it won tariff concessions as part of a package. Daniel Lyons, a Boston College law professor who specializes in internet law, said Trump might weigh the benefits of a TikTok win against the cost of trade concessions.

Trump's reversal has built up over months. In his first term he signed executive orders meant to shut down TikTok over national security concerns tied to China, but federal courts blocked them. In March, he wrote on Truth Social that banning the app would benefit Meta's Facebook, which he called "a true Enemy of the People!" for "cheating" in the last election, a claim that has not been proven. His campaign joined TikTok in June in an apparent bid to reach younger voters.

Several reports have linked his shift to efforts to court Republican donor Jeff Yass, whose firm, Susquehanna International Group, holds a large stake in ByteDance. Yass never publicly endorsed Trump but gave millions to groups backing conservative policies, including the super PAC Club for Growth. Susquehanna did not respond to a request for comment, and neither did the Trump transition team. In a March CNBC interview, Trump said Yass had not raised TikTok with him. A TikTok spokesman pointed to a court filing arguing that fully separating from ByteDance is "not commercial, not technically, not legally" possible.

A legal fight also hangs over the outcome. A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit heard arguments in September on whether the law is constitutional. The Justice Department says the measure is justified because Americans' data and views should not be exposed to decisions made by a foreign adversary. TikTok's lawyers say a ban violates the free speech rights of millions of users. Both sides have asked for a ruling by Dec. 6, and further appeals, including to the Supreme Court, are possible. If the law is struck down, the Trump administration might choose not to appeal.

Even if the law stands, a ban is not expected to take effect immediately. The law requires Apple and Google to remove TikTok from their app stores and bars web-hosting services from supporting it, but litigation or action by Trump could delay those provisions.

Any sale faces large obstacles. It is unclear whether the incoming administration would accept ByteDance remaining a minority owner. Earlier ideas, such as former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin's proposal to buy TikTok without its recommendation algorithm, drew skepticism from technologists who call the algorithm one of its most valuable assets. ByteDance has valued itself at $300 billion, roughly double OpenAI's worth, so experts expect a joint corporate bid, as with the failed 2020 attempt by Oracle and Walmart.

James Lewis of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said China might accept a deal if ByteDance stayed a passive owner and retained some control over the algorithm. He also noted that China hawks in the administration may resist giving much ground. Other possibilities include Congress repealing the law, which appears unlikely, Trump directing the attorney general not to enforce it, or approval of Project Texas, a $2 billion plan under which Oracle would monitor TikTok's data and audit its algorithm. The Biden administration rejected that plan for falling short of full divestiture. Asked to predict the administration's approach, Lewis said the best guide "remains the Magic 8 Ball."